Sunday, February 3, 2008

MMA predictions for the year 2008

I know that it's already February, but I still want to make a few predictions for the year 2008. Of course, concerning the Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) scene.

  1. Year 2007 was a year of surprises because of different factors like the overly high hopes for the success of ex-Pride fighters in the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). In 2007 factors will change, but the result will stay the same: expect more surprises. Some of these factors are
    • The introduction (to the wide audience) of a bunch of good "new" fighters from around the world via such ways as M-1 Global Challenge, The Ultimate Fighter, IFL's team format and talents from smaller promotions.
    • I don't know if Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira will win tonight, but in general I am waiting for the comeback of the old Pride fighters. That's right, I predict that the old Pride fighters (including Mirko Crocop!) will bounce back! And now, when only a few of MMA fans expect anything from them, they will start winning thus causing further surprises.
  2. In 2007 the team concept of the International Fight League (IFL) wasn't a success. This will somewhat change in the year 2008. No, they will not get the same coverage as a typical baseball or NFL team, but the difference in popularity between 2007 and 2008 will be very noticeable. How do you measure it? You could look at the amount of forum (like on Sherdog.com) discussions about the IFL. Unfortunately their search isn't working properly so we can't compare specific numbers. But we can take the number of web pages found by Google (637,000 for ifl mma (1,330,000 on Feb 8th, wtf?..) ) and compare it with a number one year ahead.
  3. Expect more cooperation between different MMA organizations. Almost all other organizations will cooperate among each other except Zuffa's promotions like the UFC and WEC. Other promotions will start getting closer to the UFC, but UFC will still be the ultimate number one. Other promotions not only include American companies, but the foreign (Dutch, Japanese, German, Russian) and Global companies as well.
  4. In the year 2007 it was a common knowledge that the UFC has the best fighters in the world, especially in heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions. This is such a "common knowledge" that it's impossible to argue about on forums. During the whole year of 2008, MMA/UFC fans will slowly realize that there is life outside the UFC as well. At the end of the year, the statement "UFC has almost all the best fighters in X weight division and one have to fight in the UFC to have competitive bouts and to considered a legit top fighter" will not receive a clear acceptance at all. There will even be a significant amount of people who will argue that the UFC's weight division X is weaker than the same division in another MMA organization.
  5. HDNet will grow a lot and will put significant effort in their MMA section. HDNet will be a key player (kinda in a role of Ambassador of Good Will) in the cooperation between different MMA promotions.
  6. I predict that Inside MMA (HDNet) will become even more respected TV Mixed Martial Arts program. The respect will not help to get a permission from the UFC to use the tapes from the UFC events, though. :) At least I don't see this happening in the first half of 2008. Maybe it will finally happen at the of 2008, but I highly doubt this as well.
  7. HDNet Fights will become one of the top MMA organizations. Mark my words and expect some great fights (perhaps including some Russian fighters?) coming from the HDNet Fights promotion in specific and on HDNet channel in general (from other promotions).
  8. At least one MMA organization will get a deal with one of the national TV channels in the USA (there might be more than one organization and more than one channel). I predict that HBO will also sign a deal with one of the Mixed Martial Arts organizations.
  9. Despite the increase in cooperation, I predict that at least one of the current top MMA organizations will either die, closely unite with another organization or be sold.
  10. I predict that we will see some major players (show wrestling, boxing) coming to the MMA scene. It might happen through a buyout.
  11. We will see the interesting PR campaign to promote Fedor Emelianenko among American people. Expect things like interviews (Internet, newspapers, TV), different programs (the UFC All Access type of programs), a lot of happenings which will keep news sites busy and people informed all the time about the existence of Fedor (and Randy Couture), etc. Many will see, to their own surprise, that the older Emelianenko speaks pretty decent English. This is one of many parts to get Fedor Emelianenko humanized among Americans. I predict that we will see a lot of beautiful Russian female translators as well. :)
  12. I believe that Fedor Emelianenko vs Randy Couture fight will happen already at the end of 2008. Zuffa will try their best to win a court fights, but will not succeed. This fight, while not highly probably, can actually happen in the UFC. Everything depends on how well people from M-1 Global will be able to market Fedor and his future fight against Couture (which will be promoted as the fight of the century or alike). UFC may take part in it if the PR promotion will be very successful and will allow Zuffa to make a lot of money. If the campaign will be only successful, UFC will not take a bite. They will prefer not to make additional profit, but to keep M-1 Global away from the view of the current UFC's fans.
  13. European market will start growing, but the noticeable growth will be limited to only a few countries (like Netherlands, England, Germany and perhaps France).
  14. American market will pretty much stay the same - with UFC as a number one MMA organization, but with more competition from other in some cases allied promotions. More and more states will lift the ban for MMA and start regulating them. More and more articles will be published in non-MMA press, although the growth will be moderate and you still won't see the results of the recent UFC in your morning newspaper.
  15. M-1 Global will organize three to four global events (local events not counting). That's not much, but these will be very big and high quality shows. In the sense of marketing, I predict that at least first event (the American one) will be free of charge. There are some chances that the event at the end of the year will turn profitable, but the overall cash balance will definitely be negative in any case. Expect more stupid lies and shifted schedules. It will only be caused because of the inexperience of the staff, but it will make MMA fans go totally crazy. :) M-1 Global will not win the battle against UFC; they will try not to fight them at all. This is smart because M-1 Global will have a different format, which can be better compared to the organization of "US Open" in tennis. Therefore it will not directly compete with a full time promotions with their politics of exclusive fighters.
  16. First there were books. Then there were movies. Then computer and console games (like GTA) as well as show wrestling (like WWE). I believe that this same trend will make a turn to the Mixed Martial Arts scene with the UFC in particular danger. As some of you may have guessed, I am talking about the "Ultimate Explanation for the Source of All Evil". I predict some stories and legal suits from stupid government officials and parents who will blame UFC for causing their children/citizens to kill or injure themselves or others.
  17. Finally, RussianMMA.com site will grow a lot and the problems with credibility and the small amount of my own materials will be pretty much gone. RussianMMA.com forum will become the number one place for intellectual discussions around global MMA overall and Russian fighters in specific. :)
As you can see, if my predictions are correct, the year will be very interesting and exciting. The interesting thing is that if my predictions are wrong, the year will be even more exciting because of the unpredictability!.. :)

What kind of predictions do you guys make? Do you agree with my predictions? Have anything to add? Make a comment!

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